Why its not business as usual for the political parties following the election

The Exit Poll shocked the political establishment

In the aftermath of the General Election attention has turned inevitably to how this result occurred. It was not supposed to be like this. 

Theresa May should have been celebrating her increased majority, whilst Jeremy Corbyn was supposed to be clinging on to the Labour leadership by his fingernails as his right-wing opponents circle. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour establishment are, if truth be told, in a state of shock.

The ability of Labour to pin back the Tories, win seats they had not expected to and to deliver a defeat that feels like a victory has been analysed by a Westminster-based commentariat who, it seems to me, are still missing the key to Labour’s victory. 

Whilst some have mentioned Momentum as having had a ‘good campaign’ the secret weapon was not the ability, as some Tory MP’s have claimed, to offer young people what they keep saying is an “undeliverable offer”, but rather the ability to mobilise a mass membership in key marginals. 

The Labour Party is the largest social democratic party in Europe. It boasted around half a million members at the start of the election campaign (somewhat more now) many of whom had joined directly to support Jeremy Corbyn. Around 25,000  or so are also members of Momentum. During the Labour leadership campaign John McDonnell, campaigning for a Jeremy Corbyn victory, had wondered aloud what effect half a million members might have on the outcome of the next General Election. We now know. 

Jeremy Corbyn had plenty of young supporters

Popular, though incorrect, discourse has cultivated an image of Momentum as a youth organisation dominated by young idealistic first time voters. Although it is true that many of the activists on the ground were young people, those I met during the campaign ranged in age from 19 to 60. It is a mistake, therefore, to assume that young people, and particularly students, delivered the unexpected result for Labour.

Whilst some of Corbyn’s supporters are young, many are not. Whilst many were members of Momentum, many were not. This movement is a broad coalition of young, old, traditional and new Labour members.

When the election was called it was clear that Theresa May intended to hijack what she saw as an impregnable poll lead in order to destroy the opposition once and for all. This was to be a realignment of the country to deliver the hard Brexit she had once ‘campaigned’ against. 

The failure of the Conservative campaign was not a failure to win votes. Indeed, the vote share was second only to the 1983 election in which Margaret Thatcher won a landslide. The problem was that the vote increased disproportionately in so-called safe seats. The end result was that, as is now well known, the Tories threw away a parliamentary majority. 

On the other hand, Labour's success was won by a politically astute campaign from Jeremy Corbyn, and those around him, coupled with activity on the ground which counteracted the lacklustre approach of the Labour establishment who very nearly sabotaged the campaign. 

That Jeremy Corbyn had an impressive campaign is now acknowledged even by what the Daily Express called his ‘grovelling critics’ including Owen Smith, David Miliband and Chuka Umunna. 

Of course, it did Labour no harm that Theresa May ran what Tory apologist Rod Liddle, writing in The Spectator, declared “the worst Tory election campaign ever”. (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/this-is-the-worst-tory-election-campaign-ever/#)

The Labour establishment also believed the polls and expected to see a huge increase in the Tory majority. Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s two leadership triumphs, it is the right of the party who still hold key positions  and crucially maintain control of the National Executive Committee. Corbyn's inability to cut through the poor public perception of him, they clearly believed, would trigger a leadership challenge in which a so-called ‘moderate’, Hillary Benn, Yvette Cooper or Chukka Umanna, would emerge to restore their control of the party.

Labour's Anna McMorrin winning Cardiff North

Many in UK Labour, believed that the campaign was doomed to failure and as such committed minimal resources to seats such as Cardiff North (where I happen to live) which were, in hindsight, clearly winnable (in the event Cardiff North turned a 2,000 Tory majority into a 4,000 Labour majority). 

Had Labour lost, say 20 or 30 seats, there is no doubt that we would now be looking at a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn and a rule change so that the members would have less say in the election of the Labour leader. The first is highly unlikely at present, the second will be the result of decisions taken at the Annual Conference in September.

The win in places such as Cardiff North and Kensington and Chelsea were undoubtedly successes  for the individual candidates who undertook their campaigns with enthusiasm and vigour. But, they were also a success for the hundreds of activists who flooded marginals. Finding a marginal was made considerably easier by a Momentum website that enabled activists to easily identify their nearest marginal seat. They were enthused by Jeremy Corbyn and a radical manifesto that was proving more popular than any manifesto from Labour in a long time.

As the campaign developed,  potential Labour voters were slowly warming to Jeremy Corbyn. One undecided voter told me “I’m not sure if I’ll vote for him but I’ve been really impressed with Jeremy Corbyn.” Another said “I was thinking of voting for her but if she won’t turn up for the debate what chance has she got against Europe.”

The Labour establishment were lukewarm about Jeremy Corbyn and were calculating at what number of vote losses a leadership challenge would be viable. A few days after the election was announced the Daily Telegraph reported that “Labour MPs privately admitted .. that it would be a "good result" to lose 45 out of 230 seats.” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/labour-not-trying-win-general-election-senior-mp-admits-least/). 

A number of sitting MPs, all critics of Jeremy Corbyn, stood down whilst Bob Marshall-Andrews defected to the Liberal Democrats saying “To many, including me, there was a forlorn hope that a reformed and radical Labour Party would rise to historic occasion. It has not and shows no real sign of doing so.” (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4428548/Even-Labour-MPs-walk-out.html#ixzz4kRa1Krw3 )

A poor election result which would have seen 30-100 Labour MPs lose their seats would have been justification for their decision to pretend that Jeremy Corbyn did not exist. He was supposed to be ‘toxic’ and a vote loser. As one Labour MP reportedly told a potential voter when questioned about Corbyn: “Don’t worry about him we’ll get rid of him after the election.”

The problem for all those constituencies who tried to ignore Jeremy Corbyn was that most voters have little interest in politics most of the time. The national media, which is where most voters get their information, were concentrating on May versus Corbyn. On the doorsteps this emphasis was reflected back.

In Wales the situation is slightly confused by the existence of the Welsh Assembly which has devolved power for education and health amongst other things. However, on doorsteps nobody ever mentioned Carwyn Jones. As one canvasser told me, “ the only time Carwyn’s name came up, it was as a reason for not voting Labour.” 

But, the reality remains that national elections are dominated by national media and national figures. Whilst much has been made of the apparent unity in the Labour Party currently, both left and right will now enter a period where both sides will seek to outperform the other in vital elections to Party positions. In many ways, this is business as usual. But this time there is a difference.

Many first time canvassers, mostly on the Corbyn wing of the party, turned out. Some of them were young people involved in their first General Election campaign. To mobilise a mass party at an election is relatively easy as there is a lot to be done and people’s enthusiasm has a channel. 

Many of those who have joined Labour over the past couple of years have no idea what it is they have signed up for. They will not be happy with some of the arcane decision making processes, the meetings dominated by procedural issues or the lack of politics which does still characterise much of the Party’s activity. 

Transforming the Labour Party may not be an easy task

They will demand change or they will leave. It is the left of the party who need to facilitate a cultural change if the mass movement they favour is to survive. If the left do disappear into a party bubble in which winning positions against the right becomes the be all then the Labour Party will quickly lose its members and its momentum. Those hundreds of thousands of members now have to feel comfortable being part of a party that gives them a home for their political aspirations and a party that welcomes change to the old ways of doing politics.

For both the Conservative Party and the Labour establishment it is tempting to regard the result in 2017 as an anomaly that will soon be corrected. For the Conservative Party they can console themselves with the knowledge that their Faustian pact with the DUP keeps them in power (for now); the Labour establishment will pay lip service to Jeremy Corbyn and claim that the successes were theirs, whilst at the same time biding their time in an attempt to take the Party back by bureaucratic manoeuvres if not another coup. For both they are trying to carry on as if it is business as usual. This is a massive mistake. 

Electoral campaigns are won and lost by many things, but any party that can mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to knock on doors and take the arguments to people who are the victims of Government policies which have ignored them, will have a major advantage. So long as Jeremy Corbyn remains as Labour leader the activists will continue to stand behind him. Whilst he is by no means unassailable he, and the left he leads, have a clear advantage both in terms of controlling the Labour Party and challenging the cosy hegemony of the Conservatives.