Time to find a third way out of the Brexit impasse

It’s been a week for demonstrating. In every major city in the UK plus quite a few places that nobody has ever called major. Protests erupted against Boris Johnson’s plan to bypass Parliament to force a no-deal Brexit.
In Cardiff, my hometown, there were 2 demos in as many days. The first attracted about 500 protestors who were a broad coalition. The second much smaller demo was, essentially, hijacked by the People’s Vote Campaign. In London tens of thousands drowned out Johnson as he was visibly shaken by the chants of Stop The Coup.

I turned up for both Cardiff demos despite my reservations about the number of people at the first who were draped in the EU flag. But, I could not stay at the second where the majority of what was a quite small crowd were wearing the flag of an institution which was an enthusiastic supporter of austerity. I am not, nor have I ever been an advocate of a second referendum.

As I have said previously if the eventual outcome of this Tory-inspired mess is that we stay in Europe I would not be heartbroken. I voted to remain after all. But, that is not the same as saying I am prepared to ignore a referendum and stamp my feet until I get the outcome I desire.

People’s Vote as hostile to Jeremy Corbyn
as to the Tories

I cannot forget that at their large demonstrations the People’s Vote campaign encouraged the crowd in its hatred of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. I know that those demonstrations were also attended by Labour Party members loyal to Jeremy, but the overwhelming message was that Brexit was somehow Jeremy's fault.

Labour’s position on Brexit has always been difficult, not because it is complicated but because a number of Labour MPs refused to accept it and joined forces with the People’s Vote campaign. There was a strong sense that the anti-Brexit campaign was an adjunct of the anti-Corbyn campaign.

It has always struck me that the language of both the extreme leavers and the extreme remainers is remarkably similar. Both camps claim to be talking for the people when in fact they continue to talk at them. Both camps claim to be upholding democracy when in fact both are very prepared to ignore it in pursuit of their own agendas. And, crucially both camps refuse steadfastly to engage with the Leader of the Opposition, resorting to lies and insults.

Both camps claim to have, and quite possibly do have, large support among the general voting public. But both are peddling a myth. For the leavers the belief that Britain can ‘simply leave’ the EU or that it can get a better deal by bluster and threat is a total fallacy. But the remain camp’s claim that simply revoking Article 50 will somehow bridge the divisions in the UK is equally fallacious. As is their claim that the EU is, and always has been, a force for good.

The reality is that we should never have had a referendum in the first place. It was a Tory answer to a Tory problem. But, having had a referendum we must accept the result, despite whatever misgivings
we may have about the campaign. That is the only democratic option.

Right wing papers treat anything other than a
no-deal Brexit as if we are at war with the EU

However, accepting the referendum result is not the same thing as completely wrecking our economic relationship with the rest of Europe, and by extension, most of the rest of the World. Some Tory newspapers are keen on using war metaphors to pretend that negotiating with Europe is a case of “surrendering” to them. But, if they knew anything of war they would know that the old adage that an army marches on its stomach is historically borne out.

A famous study of World War 2 conducted by respected academics Edward Shils and Morris Janowitz in 1947 showed how the German army disintegrated after its supply lines were cut off. This is precisely what leaving the EU with no deal would mean for the UK. We rely on supply lines which run through Europe without which there will be severe shortages of food and medicines.

Whilst that outcome could be avoided by revoking Article 50 as the extreme remainers demand, such a move would also alienate 50% of the population of voters who voted leave. From a tactical point of view many of those are certainly Labour voters, but more importantly such a course could be devastating for our democracy.

Many people are starting to realise the binary choice
will not resolve the Brexit impasse

It is widely believed that the leave vote was the exasperated act of an underclass that had felt ignored and forgotten. It was an anti-establishment vote. What those voters now see is two sides of the establishment fighting it out with one side supposedly delivering what they voted for (as if anybody actually knew) and the other trying to frustrate that vote.

If the remain side win then the distrust of democracy and the establishment will run deep into the body politic. Many of the ordinary leave voters, already scapegoated by years of economic neglect, will see the far right as representing their interests. The fact that the remain camp have spent three years telling these people that they are stupid, racist and do not know what is in their best interests is hardly likely to have won them over.

In truth whilst the remain side of the argument like to pretend that they are anti-establishment to many leave voters they will seem to be authority figures who have always patronised those they believe to be less well educated or less well mannered. Snobbery, unfortunately, is not the preserve of the ruling class.

Between the extremes sits a third alternative. Respect the referendum but do so in a way which protects the interests of the population particularly those living in the harshest conditions. That means leaving with a deal. The reality is that there has never been a no-deal option. It’s just a question of when we do the deal or deals and the damage we do to ourselves in the intervening period.

We will no longer be formal members of the EU. No more MEP’s (Who most people didn’t vote for and could not name), no more European summits for our PM to attend, no more adherence to European regulations (except in so far as they are necessary to maintain trade) and no more opportunity to blame Europe for our own domestic failures.

But, a deal means we get a transition period in which we continue to have access to the single market whilst we agree our future economic relationship with Europe. It means no disruption to our supply lines and most importantly protects the Good Friday Agreement in Ireland.

It’s time to lose the flags and accept that Britain must leave
the EU but do so with a deal that protects our economy

The only way to achieve this third option is for extreme remainers to throw down their flags and to get behind the only party in the UK capable of negotiating sensibly with the EU. That is the Labour Party who will probably have to win a General Election in order to get into that position. For that reason whilst I continue to support #StopTheCoup I cannot support demos hijacked by extreme remainers. And I do think I speak for a silent majority in this country who simply want to get back to living their lives without the constant background chatter and childish public schoolboy pranks of a Brexit lobby who are prepared to sacrifice ordinary people on a gamble with the country’s economy.