Do we want an early General Election?

With the somewhat odd situation of a Tory Prime Minister elected by only 93,000 people, threatening to suspend parliament in order to force through a no-deal Brexit everybody, including Johnson and most of his cabinet, said was the worst possible option, it might be a good time for the left to take stock.

Many on the left are enthusiastically calling for a General Election in the hope that the Labour leadership can cobble together enough votes to force through a vote of no-confidence before Parliament is prorogued. Although, we now face a situation where Boris Johnson is threatening an early General Election if MPs pass a law which calls on him to ask for an extension to Article 50.
The left, generally and in the Labour Party, have been quick to support the ‘stop the coup’ protests which have sprung up throughout the UK. With all this excitement, and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit looming, it is easy to live in the moment and forget to take a longer term view of what is happening.
Just for the sake of clarity I am not an advocate of a no-deal Brexit, I was a remain voter, and I do not support the Tories apparent indifference to parliamentary democracy. I am, however, concerned that the effort being put into the ‘stop the coup’ protests could be at the expense of other equally pressing issues.
Whilst as a member of the Labour Party I would welcome a General Election, the timing of such an election could be crucial to the possibility of a Labour victory. A point which has surely not been missed by the cabal around Johnson. All eyes should be focussed on October 31st as this date is critical for all that follows.

I believe that one of the reasons Johnson is so determined to force through a no-deal

Brexit is because he believes that doing so will neutralise the threat of Farage’s Brexit Party. If leave voters get any whiff of a Brexit sell-out by Johnson then the Brexit Party will mop up disenchanted leave votes, leaving the Tories chances of winning an election in tatters. For this reason alone I think two things are likely. First, no-deal has become a strategy to secure Tory Government. And, secondly, there is simply no
way Johnson will go to the polls prior to 31st October.

Of course not everybody on the left agrees with this analysis believing that Johnson will be forced into a General Election by a vote of no confidence which he will lose. Here I think the role of Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is critical. It was reported, by Natalie Rowe who tends to be right about these things, that Swinson held meetings with Johnsonin August. Neither of them have confirmed that these meetings have taken place, but crucially they have not denied it. It is well known that Swinson was an enthusiastic supporter of the ConDem coalition actually voting with the Tory whip more times than even Johnson.

So, what might these meetings have been about? It is clear that Swinson is a right-wing opportunist whose ambition to get a seat at the Cabinet is far greater than any principles she may hold. She has been clear that she would not support Jeremy Corbyn, even if doing so could prevent the no-deal Brexit she claims to oppose. Is it possible, I wonder, that she has done a deal with Johnson to prevent a vote of no confidence taking place in exchange for propping up a weakened Tory Party post-election?

It is noticeable that whilst many Lib Dem supporters have been demonstrating Swinson’s support has been lacklustre. She cannot be seen to oppose her own party (she is no Margaret Hodge), but I believe it was her brief to undermine Labour’s plan for a temporary caretaker government by turning this into a vote of confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. The compromise agreed by the cross-party coalition to use legislation to prevent no-deal was effectively neutered by Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament. I wonder when Swinson knew this proroguation was going to take place? Is this all a plan to block a Corbyn-led Labour Government and herald another ConDem coalition? 

I have my own reservations about the current demonstrations, though I do support them because they seem to be a popular uprising (albeit a very polite uprising). From what I have seen the protests are being hijacked by people wearing EU flags. In other words, far from defending democracy the protests are being taken over by people who seek to overturn the 2016 referendum.

I understand all the arguments against the referendum result, that it was advisory, that there were financial irregularities and that the leave side told blatant lies (Johnson was liar-in-chief once he decided which side would best serve his career). These are good arguments but repeating them ad finitum does not, and will not, annul the referendum. In the real world most people voted believing the result would be honoured, most people only believed lies that confirmed their existing prejudices and the financial irregularities were simply not sufficient for the referendum to be annulled.

I have believed for a long time that we should simply agree to honour the result which means finding a way to substantially leave the EU. However I, and many others, have never believed that we would leave the EU without a deal. Indeed, it is inconceivable that we will not end up trading with our
nearest neighbours. I suspect that Johnson and his pack of hyenas know this too. Hence this
pantomime of pretending that he is trying to convince them to agree to a new deal that he knows they have already said they will not do. The attempt to shift the EU is part of a strategy to lay the blame for any shortages post-October on the EU. It is yet another cynical deflection tactic designed to deliver Johnson what he most desires: power.

For the left, the possibility of an early General Election is enticing. For starters we appear to be in a strong position to win. However, we should also stop to think about what happens if we do get a Labour Government before Christmas.
The first consequence of an early election would be that trigger ballots, so important in bringing the PLP into tune with the leadership and members, will not happen. This means that a Labour Government will have 100-150 backbencher so who have already shown that they do not value loyalty to the party or its elected leader. I believe that a Labour Government could be undermined by a centrist coalition of Labour right-wingers and Swinson’s Lib-Dem rump. Is it paranoid to see the scaly hand of Peter Mandelson manipulating events in the background?

For this reason alone I would be wary of being over-enthusiastic about the prospects of an early election. But, there is also Labour’s policy on Brexit.




I do not think Brexit played a major role in 2017 partly because it still seemed some way off but mainly because the activist base were so fired up by a radical manifesto which promised to rebalance wealth and power in the UK. Some policies, such as renationalisation of the railways, were simply popular in a way that was unimaginable only a few years ago, and Jeremy Corbyn became more popular with Labour’s core support the longer the election went on.

In 2019, Brexit will be a major issue, either because we are in the fallout of a no-deal or because it has not yet happened. Either way whoever wins the election is going to have to sort out that particular mess. To enter an election promising a second referendum in which we support remain is going to draw all the oxygen out of promoting the other issues around equality, social justice, welfare reform and rebalancing the tax burden.

Take it for granted that whenever the election occurs not a single mainstream paper will support Jeremy Corbyn. And, whilst broadcast media face stricter rules on partiality expect every Tory lie about Corbyn to be taken seriously and repeated ad nauseum, whilst the Tories and Lib Dem’s will be treated with kid gloves.

I honestly feel that a General Election in 2020 offers Labour the best chance of success, even if we may need the SNP’s help in forming a government. We could go into a General Election with all but a rump of Blairite careerists removed from the safe seats they were gifted during the Blair-Brown years, and with candidates from the left actually committed to redefining Labour’s socialist credentials.