One year on: lessons of the pandemic

It has been almost exactly one year since the U.K. went into its first nationwide lockdown. In the 26 days following the first recorded death in the U.K. there were 1,789 deaths and approximately 25,000 reported cases. In the 368 days since (as of Thursday March 10th 2021) there had been 124,987 deaths and 4,234,924 known cases. Despite the roll out of the vaccine and the Government repeatedly congratulating itself on what a great job it has done both deaths and infections continue to rise in ways which other countries are not experiencing. That said, the toll on human life from Covid 19 has been huge. Worldwide, 2.6 million people have died. A staggering 118 million people have been infected.

Lesson 1: commuting is unnecessary

There have been a number of lessons to be drawn from a year of lockdown. Although not the lesson that will jump to most people’s minds it strikes me that in terms of how we organise the economy finding out that the daily commute was not really necessary could well herald a significant change in working practices post-pandemic. In 2011 it was estimated that the average commuter travelled 1,266 miles in a year. I think it’s safe to say that in the past year the amount of miles was considerably less as employers discovered that rather than drag people halfway across the country to sit at a computer screen, they could allow them to log on from the comfort of their own homes. Of course, not everybody likes working from home, but I can’t think anybody enjoys sitting in a car on a motorway crawling along at 5 miles per hour or crammed into a railway carriage designed for half the number of passengers. 

Two-thirds of commuting trips are car journeys in cars occupied by just the driver. This is bad not just for the driver but also the environment. It is estimated that around three-quarters of greenhouse emissions are transport related. Not all of that is made by commuters, of course. But, the average petrol car produces the equivalent of 180g of CO2 every kilometre, compared to a bus which produces 82g of CO2 per kilometre. During the first lockdown, at a time when most of the World was locked down and international air travel was suspended CO2 emissions for the planet dropped 17%, the biggest drop on record. We may have all felt trapped in our own homes but when we did venture out the air was cleaner, and instead of the constant hum of traffic you could hear birds singing even in city centres. To be fair, most people failed to notice these desirable effects because they were worried about the virus or more concerned to return to normalcy. 

Lesson 2: there is no such thing as British spirit

Lockdown has certainly been traumatic but rather than show the best of what Johnson called “the indomitable British spirit” what we learned was that when it comes down to it a significant proportion of the population were more than happy to engage in an orgy of aggressive individualism as the fittest rushed to strip supermarkets of essential goods leaving very little for the vulnerable and needy. Not everybody joined in this plunder of the country’s resources but a first wave of the greedy and selfish was followed by a second wave of the anxious and desperate. And, it was entirely unnecessary. If credit has to be given anywhere it was in the ability of food producers to keep the supply lines moving. Toilet rolls did not run out, neither did pasta, biscuits or indeed most foodstuffs. There was never a shortage of food and undoubtedly much of the excess produce has ended up on rubbish tips. 

Australian psychologists Melissa Norbert and Derek Rucker explain that: “Seeing empty shelves can trigger an urge to snatch what is left. Research on the “scarcity heuristic” suggests we assume items are more valuable if they are in low supply.” And, as they point out in developed economies food waste is commonplace anyway. From that perspective the “irrational” behaviour was simply normal behaviour but exaggerated. The lesson here perhaps is to educate people to respect the fact that all the earth’s resources are finite. But, why would a social system dependent on consumerism, want to draw that lesson? 

Lesson 3: a crisis is the perfect opportunity for a conspiracy theory

Initially, people’s reaction to the pandemic was one of fear which was supported by a media narrative that talked of a ‘killer virus’. Over time this fear has been replaced by cynicism and frustration, although fear still exists. Cynicism fuelled by a range of conspiracy theories and frustration at being ‘forced’ to alter normal lives in order to ensure that others could be safe. Conspiracy theories are nothing new but as a novel coronavirus was ravaging almost every country of the World they gained currency. The first reported such theory was probably from Francis Boyle, a Harvard trained law professor, who according to Al-Jazeera claimed on 21st January 2020 that the virus was a manufactured bio-weapon which had escaped from a high level lab in Wuhan. The claim has been dismissed both by an independent team of virologists who examined the virus DNA and concluded that it was most likely it had entered humans via bats or pangolins; and by the World Health Authority who concluded, after a fairly extensive investigation that it was extremely unlikely that the virus had “escaped” from a lab. 

But, as the pandemic has developed and stayed with us many people have abandoned science in favour of sensationalist and false narratives. What has given these theories a veneer of respectability has been that very often they are supported by scientists, though rarely it has to be said by virologists. But, it is not those propagating these theories that should worry us. But those who believe them. “People who feel powerless are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories,” the psychologist Jan-Willem van Prooijen says, and conspiracy theories can help rectify that feeling of powerlessness. Conspiracy theories, then, give those for whom society gives no control the illusion of power by providing a rationale for events that seem beyond their control. The Covid19 virus and the lockdowns which have accompanied it have provided fertile ground for such theories. 

Lesson 4: the education system is failing

Whilst we may think that what we have learned is that people are extremely gullible, that is too harsh a judgement. If people are gullible it is not a failing on their part but a society that provides very little certainty in many people’s lives. It is a society that does not provide ordinary people with the tools to sift through the array of information on offer. It is a society that encourages a kind of dull groupthink in which requiring evidence for your beliefs is actually undermining your freedom to choose for yourself what to believe. If there has been one massive lesson to be drawn from the pandemic it is that what we regard as education is singularly failing to create active, thoughtful and questioning citizens but rather churns out alienated workers with little control over their lives who justify their lack of knowledge by believing only that which supports their prejudice. 

Conspiracy theories have occupied the space which ought to be reserved for political decision-making. However, one of the major lessons of the pandemic has to be the abject failure of the political class to make decisions. Of course in some countries, New Zealand springs to mind, political leaders have shown, well, leadership. But in others, Britain and America in particular, politicians have been caught between wanting to stay in control and not having a clue what they were talking about. The sensible option in such a scenario is to take the Jacinda Aderne route and look at the science and make a decision based on that. But, to do that requires an intelligence that is sadly lacking in many politicians who when their knowledge is found wanting resort to bluster and meaningless rhetoric. It is not that many politicians lack formal qualifications. Most possess at least a degree, and even Johnson has a writing proficiency certificate, but that that too often passing exams is seen as a sign of intelligence when in fact it is a sign that you can pass exams. The way to political success in our current system is not through being innovative or standing out from the crowd, but rather by fitting in, being liked and gathering around you people that tell you exactly what you want to hear. Most politicians are not gifted orators, nor particularly innovative thinkers, nor (and this is the important bit) great problem solvers. What they are is motivated by an egotistical desire for success. 

Lesson 5: Politicians are inadequate

As Gelman et al discuss success is achieved not so much by ability as by a desire to be successful. Politicians are particularly prone to see failure as a weakness. Boris Johnson, for example, constantly talks of how successful the government are never acknowledging their mistakes. SirKeith has the same tendency. This is partly related to the way in which politics has shifted from being a vocation to a career. Every day of a politicians life is like an extended interview for the next stage of their career and you don’t go into an interview and announce that you are ill qualified to do the job with a litany of errors behind you to prove it. In normal times this is bad enough but in extraordinary times such as this the failure of politicians to accept their own weaknesses is catastrophic for those who rely on their judgement. 

This needs repeating: since March last year the Government has been responsible for almost 125,000 deaths. Saying they are responsible is not saying they have killed them, but that they are responsible for policies that have ultimately seen 125,000 British citizens die. But, here’s the lesson.The British death toll is 4.7% of all the deaths due to Covid 19 in the World. To put this into perspective the U.K. contains 0.09% of the World’s population. In other words, the death rate is fifty-two times what might reasonably have been expected had all governments acted the same. These deaths are not a tragic accident they are the result of the cumulative failure of government to make the correct decisions. Whether that was by refusing to lockdown early enough, coming out of lockdown too early, not preparing for a pandemic by having PPE or proper procedures, failing to test and trace, giving out inconsistent and often contradictory messages on what was and what was not safe behaviour, covering up or excusing the lockdown breaches of their friends whilst at the same time promoting common sense as the answer to a lack of regulatory guidance. 

Lesson 6: Profits are more important than people

The lesson is that poor politicians make poor decisions and ordinary people suffer. But it is not just poor decision-making, but the lesson we need to repeat is that our political establishment has not just put profit before people, but has put lining the pockets of their friends before protecting the health of their citizens. An extraordinary amount of money has been spent throughout this pandemic. But, has it been value for money? The New York Times did a special investigation in December and concluded: “Taken together, about half of that $22 billion went to companies with political connections, no prior experience or histories of controversy.” This was in December and it was an outrage that has not stopped the Tories from continuing to trawl ever more corrupt practices. Matt Hancock was taken to the High Court by the Good Law Project and the judge ruled: “The Secretary of State acted unlawfully by failing to comply with the Transparency Policy” Despite this it never occurred to him that he should resign and when SirKeith was questioned on the Sophy Ridge Show he never considered ‘stealing’ £11 billion of public money and handing it to his friends a resigning issue. The lesson here is not that we can rely on the courts, though the scale of corruption was so great that even a High Court judge could not ignore it, but that the political establishment consider this level of corruption perfectly acceptable. Let’s be honest if a few corners had been cut to procure PPE or ensure that there was a proper test and trace system nobody would have minded. But, this was breaking the rules out of pure greed, and although it has been covered in the press, the outrage is far less than that which has accompanied the Harry and Meghan interview. 

Lesson 7: The media are just Government cheerleaders

Which leads nicely into the final lesson we might draw from a year of a pandemic. If the political system is broken one of the reasons it is allowed to get away with it is the failure of the media to hold it to account. Socialists have long recognised the mass media as a hostile force pursuing an agenda that is determined to support the status quo. But this pandemic has seen the media as cheerleaders for the government even as the death toll has risen due to government incompetence. From the lionizing of Captain Tom to the failure to question the government adequately over its repeated failures the mass media’s role in the pandemic has been to push a particular narrative. That is that what matters most is the economy. The narrative blamed ordinary people for spreading the disease through their failure to stay home whilst at the same time criticising workers who wanted their workplaces to be safe. Teachers in particular were told to ‘step up’ just like the heroes in the NHS. In other words, as far as the tabloids were concerned if a few hundred teachers died that was a price worth paying. 

Prior to the vaccines becoming available much of the media rallied behind the right-wing scientists pursuing the so-called Great Barrington Declaration. In October BBC News reported: “Thousands of scientists and health experts have joined a global movement warning of "grave concerns" about Covid-19 lockdown policies. Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society.“ At the same time the Telegraph printed an opinion piece by one of the signatories which declared: “Protect the elderly, but let’s see life back to normal for those at low risk” Whilst the Daily Mail reported: “Now more than 12,000 scientists and medics have signed a petition calling on the Government to abandon damaging lockdown restrictions - as it attracts an ever-growing list of supporters. ” The tone of these reports was consistent with the view being widely spread by the media that lockdowns were an unnecessary interference with our “freedom”. Furthermore, that since most of the victims were elderly that it was unfair to prevent younger people from going about their day-to-day lives. Remember, at this time there was no viable vaccine. The “experts” who were being quoted were either pursuing a right-wing libertarian agenda (which was never mentioned) or despite their impressive titles (Professor or Doctor) had no background in virology, epidemiology or anything that could be seen as remotely related to Covid 19. I am not saying these people were not entitled to an opinion, but to describe them as “experts” was both misleading and dangerous. They may well have been expert on something but it was not anything that gave them a privileged view of how viruses work. So, this was dangerous for at a time when people wanted restrictions lifted for Christmas, this narrative provided a rationale for doing so. The result of this was another major spike in infection rates and deaths. The media then conveniently dropped these so-called “experts” as they shifted their attention to other issues. The lesson: the mass media are an arm of the establishment and cannot be trusted any more than politicians. 

Lesson 8: Capitalism is broken

It may well be that within the next 12 months Covid 19 will seem like a bad dream with just regular vaccinations as the only memory of the lockdown. At the beginning there was much talk of a ‘new normal’ now it is just a return to ‘old normal’ with all the inequalities not just intact but exacerbated. Society as a whole will not learn lessons from the past 12 months because most of those lessons would interfere with the ability of the elite to continue to hoard unimaginable amounts of wealth. Which makes it more important than ever that we build new types of organisation capable of taking on an entrenched establishment whose downfall may well be caused by their own system rather than our actions but whose continued existence calls upon all those who believe they are progressive to prepare for the very distinct possibility that capitalism will collapse due to its own inherent contradictions. But that is a conversation for another day.

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