Friday the 13th

With the election only days away no doubt all readers of this blog are, in between canvassing, biting finger nails. We don’t know what we will wake up to on Friday 13^th (and if that’s not ominous I don’t know what is). If the polls are to be believed (see my previous post polls apart for why they might not be) then Boris Johnson will get the mandate he desires to complete his favoured version of Brexit.

I don’t generally do predictions. My crystal ball has hardly proved to be accurate in the past. But, here’s a couple of things I would not be surprised to see happen before the end of the week.

The opinion polls will be proved to have overstated the Tory lead by at least 5 percentage points. I think the current 41-43% of vote share is where they will end up. Their vote is solid and we have to accept that around 2/5ths of our fellow citizens really have no interest in social justice.

Labour will poll better than their current figure of 33% due to a late surge in voting amongst the undecideds and the return of leave voting Labour supporters who, when push comes to shove, will favour defending the NHS over Brexit. I think they will also end up between 40-43%.

Jo Swinson will lose her seat as the SNP consolidate their position as the main party in Scotland, thus almost certainly heralding a new independence referendum within the next 2 years.

None of those Lib Dem or Change UK MP’s who left either Labour or the Conservatives will win their seats. Their egoistic belief that their names were more important than their parties will prove to be their undoing.

The BBC will come under increased scrutiny for its scandalous inability to remain impartial during this election. If the Tories gain a majority (which I don’t think they will) they will get away with it, but if Labour (possibly with SNP support) becomes the government the Tory supporting executives days will surely be numbered.

Whoever wins Brexit will not get done. Or, at least not as quickly as the Tories have tried to con people into believing. The parliamentary arithmetic will not add up and this toxic debate will rumble on. Even with a majority Brexit will still not get done quickly. It is a process that realistically will not be completed until 2021. 

As to who will win. I’ve felt for a long time that the over-representation of Tory voters (which adds around 6 percentage points to their figures) and the under-representation of younger and working class voters amongst Labour voters (which means they are probably polling about 4 percentage points higher than reported) means that we have been tying for some time. Both parties continue to gain support from other parties, but the Conservative well is pretty much dry. Labour will need to take votes from the Lib Dem’s and convince non-voters (particularly younger voters) to turn up if they are to actually win. Based on all this I am expecting a hung parliament and about 3 days of negotiations before an actual government emerges. Jeremy Corbyn could still end up in Number 10, but so could Johnson. Much depends on how many people are convinced by Jo Swinson.

If Johnson in any way wins the battle for the heart of the Labour Party will ramp up almost immediately. The right will renew their attacks on the left with renewed vigour. I have already outlined what I think could happen in a previous post which is here.

If Jeremy wins then depending on how that happens, I suspect we will end up doing a deal of some kind with the SNP, then attacks on Labour by the media will be ferocious and consistent from day one. There is likely to be a run on the pound, and there will be concerted attempts by both our opponents and sections of our own party to prevent the implementation of the most radical sections of the manifesto.

All of this, of course, can change and on the day anything could happen. But whatever the result the task facing us will be huge. Either defending our Labour government or defending our NHS and our communities. This battle is far from over.