Is the Remain Alliance a threat to Labour?

The Liberal Democratic candidate Jane Dodds won the Brecon & Radnorshire by-Election last Thursday with what on the face of it looks like a game-changing “progressive alliance” with Plaid Cymru and the Green Party.

The election was largely seen as a disaster for both the Conservatives (who somewhat strangely kept the same disgraced candidate who had prompted the by-election in the first place) and Labour who, it has been claimed, were victims of a remain alliance.

It is a compelling narrative. The Conservative majority in the House of Commons was slashed from 2 to 1. Whilst Labour came close to losing their deposit. Labour’s right-wing detractors were soon out in force claiming that this was the proof, as if they needed it, that it was time for Jeremy Corbyn to step aside for a new leader (though who they have in mind that would get the endorsement of members they have yet to reveal).

I am always curious at the way in which by-elections, often run on a single issue (obviously this time it was Brexit), are used by political commentators as harbingers of future General Elections.

Let’s see if this was really a triumph for remain. If we add all the Brexit parties (Cons, Brexit, and UKIP) and all the remain party votes (that’s Lib Dem’s, Labour, and we’ll throw in the Monster Raving Loonies) a more complex picture emerges

Pro-Brexit 15,974 (50.2%)
Pro-Remain 15,840 (49.8%)

So, the idea that this was a triumph for the pro-remain alliance is actually not consistent with the evidence, particularly as Jo Swinson has claimed that a Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour Party is “bottling it” on Brexit which if true would shift Brecon & Radnorshire even more into the pro-Brexit camp.

The result of this election certainly did not make great reading for supporters of the Labour Party.

Fourth behind the Lib Dem’s, the Conservatives and the single-issue Brexit Party. This is not quite where we would like to be. But it is important to treat these figures with caution. First, those crowing about the performance of the Lib Dem’s are conveniently overlooking the low turnout (compared to the 2017 General Election). On Thursday turnout was just 56.9% compared to 73.8% in 2017.
So a claim that, for example Labour lost over 5,000 votes, whilst technically true, is slightly  misleading, the fact is over 1200 Labour voters from 2017 decided to sit this one out.

In 2017 the Labour Party had 7,335 votes. In order to get a truer picture of the loss we have to recognise that when nearly 25% of voters simply did not vote in the by-election that the vote for Labour was already down. Indeed had that additional 25% of voters actually voted, Labour would have got 2,276 votes. Still not great and still 5,000+ votes down but not the “almost lost your deposit” disaster it was mooted.

In order to get a sense of what Labour should read into this vote it is necessary to compare like with like. Crudely using a comparison of a General Election with a by-Election is likely to create more fog than clarity.

This table shows the numbers taking the 2017 turnout as the base. In other words, I have adjusted the actual vote for 2019 to assume that the turnout was identical to a General Election.

This helps us to see where the various votes have gone. What seems likely is that the increased Lib Dem vote is made up of Labour and Plaid Cymru voters. We know that Plaid Cymru encouraged their voters to vote Lib Dem. We know that Labour did not, but it seems many of them did so anyway.

We can also see that the loss of voters from the Conservatives was almost entirely explained by the growth in the Brexit Party vote.

This suggests that the Brexit Party ate into the Conservative vote, and the Lib Dem’s did the same to Labour. This fits the analysis that the by-Election was equally bad news for both of them.

However, some historical context is needed. Labour has not held this seat since 1974, during which time it has been held by either the Conservatives or Lib Dem’s.

It is possible that Labour voters have deserted Labour for the Lib Dem’s. It is also possible that this is entirely due to Brexit. But, one by-Election in a seat only held by 2 parties since the mid-70’s is not the conclusive proof that some would claim.

If Labour voters did vote tactically in Brecon & Radnorshire there is no reason to suppose that they would do so in seats where Labour had the sitting MP or where Labour was second in 2017.

Moreover, whilst it is relatively easy to turn a by-Election into a mini-referendum on a single issue that is not so easy during a General Election where many issues compete for the attention of voters.

The Brecon by-Election was a triumph for the Lib Dem’s, and it could have been better for Labour, but it is important to keep perspective. There was very little chance that Labour would win a seat they have not held since 1974. This was a two-way contest between the Lib Dem’s and the Tories. Were it not for the Brexit Party it is likely the result would have been much closer, but this was a seat that eluded Labour even in the high tide of 1997. To paint a failure to win it now as a disaster is not taking the context into account.