Monday, June 19, 2017

Why its not business as usual for the political parties following the election

The Exit Poll shocked the political establishment
In the aftermath of the General Election attention has turned inevitably to how this result occurred. It was not supposed to be like this. 

Theresa May should have been celebrating her increased majority, whilst Jeremy Corbyn was supposed to be clinging on to the Labour leadership by his fingernails as his right-wing opponents circle. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour establishment are, if truth be told, in a state of shock.

The ability of Labour to pin back the Tories, win seats they had not expected to and to deliver a defeat that feels like a victory has been analysed by a Westminster-based commentariat who, it seems to me, are still missing the key to Labour’s victory. 

Whilst some have mentioned Momentum as having had a ‘good campaign’ the secret weapon was not the ability, as some Tory MP’s have claimed, to offer young people what they keep saying is an “undeliverable offer”, but rather the ability to mobilise a mass membership in key marginals. 

The Labour Party is the largest social democratic party in Europe. It boasted around half a million members at the start of the election campaign (somewhat more now) many of whom had joined directly to support Jeremy Corbyn. Around 25,000  or so are also members of Momentum. During the Labour leadership campaign John McDonnell, campaigning for a Jeremy Corbyn victory, had wondered aloud what effect half a million members might have on the outcome of the next General Election. We now know. 


Jeremy Corbyn had plenty of young supporters
Popular, though incorrect, discourse has cultivated an image of Momentum as a youth organisation dominated by young idealistic first time voters. Although it is true that many of the activists on the ground were young people, those I met during the campaign ranged in age from 19 to 60. It is a mistake, therefore, to assume that young people, and particularly students, delivered the unexpected result for Labour.

Whilst some of Corbyn’s supporters are young, many are not. Whilst many were members of Momentum, many were not. This movement is a broad coalition of young, old, traditional and new Labour members.

When the election was called it was clear that Theresa May intended to hijack what she saw as an impregnable poll lead in order to destroy the opposition once and for all. This was to be a realignment of the country to deliver the hard Brexit she had once ‘campaigned’ against. 

The failure of the Conservative campaign was not a failure to win votes. Indeed, the vote share was second only to the 1983 election in which Margaret Thatcher won a landslide. The problem was that the vote increased disproportionately in so-called safe seats. The end result was that, as is now well known, the Tories threw away a parliamentary majority. 

On the other hand, Labour's success was won by a politically astute campaign from Jeremy Corbyn, and those around him, coupled with activity on the ground which counteracted the lacklustre approach of the Labour establishment who very nearly sabotaged the campaign. 

That Jeremy Corbyn had an impressive campaign is now acknowledged even by what the Daily Express called his ‘grovelling critics’ including Owen Smith, David Miliband and Chuka Umunna. 

Of course, it did Labour no harm that Theresa May ran what Tory apologist Rod Liddle, writing in The Spectator, declared “the worst Tory election campaign ever”. (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/this-is-the-worst-tory-election-campaign-ever/#)

The Labour establishment also believed the polls and expected to see a huge increase in the Tory majority. Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s two leadership triumphs, it is the right of the party who still hold key positions  and crucially maintain control of the National Executive Committee. Corbyn's inability to cut through the poor public perception of him, they clearly believed, would trigger a leadership challenge in which a so-called ‘moderate’, Hillary Benn, Yvette Cooper or Chukka Umanna, would emerge to restore their control of the party.

Labour's Anna McMorrin winning Cardiff North
Many in UK Labour, believed that the campaign was doomed to failure and as such committed minimal resources to seats such as Cardiff North (where I happen to live) which were, in hindsight, clearly winnable (in the event Cardiff North turned a 2,000 Tory majority into a 4,000 Labour majority). 

Had Labour lost, say 20 or 30 seats, there is no doubt that we would now be looking at a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn and a rule change so that the members would have less say in the election of the Labour leader. The first is highly unlikely at present, the second will be the result of decisions taken at the Annual Conference in September.

The win in places such as Cardiff North and Kensington and Chelsea were undoubtedly successes  for the individual candidates who undertook their campaigns with enthusiasm and vigour. But, they were also a success for the hundreds of activists who flooded marginals. Finding a marginal was made considerably easier by a Momentum website that enabled activists to easily identify their nearest marginal seat. They were enthused by Jeremy Corbyn and a radical manifesto that was proving more popular than any manifesto from Labour in a long time.

As the campaign developed,  potential Labour voters were slowly warming to Jeremy Corbyn. One undecided voter told me “I’m not sure if I’ll vote for him but I’ve been really impressed with Jeremy Corbyn.” Another said “I was thinking of voting for her but if she won’t turn up for the debate what chance has she got against Europe.

The Labour establishment were lukewarm about Jeremy Corbyn and were calculating at what number of vote losses a leadership challenge would be viable. A few days after the election was announced the Daily Telegraph reported that “Labour MPs privately admitted .. that it would be a "good result" to lose 45 out of 230 seats.” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/labour-not-trying-win-general-election-senior-mp-admits-least/)

A number of sitting MPs, all critics of Jeremy Corbyn, stood down whilst Bob Marshall-Andrews defected to the Liberal Democrats saying “To many, including me, there was a forlorn hope that a reformed and radical Labour Party would rise to historic occasion. It has not and shows no real sign of doing so.” (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4428548/Even-Labour-MPs-walk-out.html#ixzz4kRa1Krw3 )

A poor election result which would have seen 30-100 Labour MPs lose their seats would have been justification for their decision to pretend that Jeremy Corbyn did not exist. He was supposed to be ‘toxic’ and a vote loser. As one Labour MP reportedly told a potential voter when questioned about Corbyn: “Don’t worry about him we’ll get rid of him after the election.”

The problem for all those constituencies who tried to ignore Jeremy Corbyn was that most voters have little interest in politics most of the time. The national media, which is where most voters get their information, were concentrating on May versus Corbyn. On the doorsteps this emphasis was reflected back.

In Wales the situation is slightly confused by the existence of the Welsh Assembly which has devolved power for education and health amongst other things. However, on doorsteps nobody ever mentioned Carwyn Jones. As one canvasser told me, “ the only time Carwyn’s name came up, it was as a reason for not voting Labour.” 

But, the reality remains that national elections are dominated by national media and national figures. Whilst much has been made of the apparent unity in the Labour Party currently, both left and right will now enter a period where both sides will seek to outperform the other in vital elections to Party positions. In many ways, this is business as usual. But this time there is a difference.

Many first time canvassers, mostly on the Corbyn wing of the party, turned out. Some of them were young people involved in their first General Election campaign. To mobilise a mass party at an election is relatively easy as there is a lot to be done and people’s enthusiasm has a channel. 

Many of those who have joined Labour over the past couple of years have no idea what it is they have signed up for. They will not be happy with some of the arcane decision making processes, the meetings dominated by procedural issues or the lack of politics which does still characterise much of the Party’s activity. 
Transforming the Labour Party may not be an easy task

They will demand change or they will leave. It is the left of the party who need to facilitate a cultural change if the mass movement they favour is to survive. If the left do disappear into a party bubble in which winning positions against the right becomes the be all then the Labour Party will quickly lose its members and its momentum. Those hundreds of thousands of members now have to feel comfortable being part of a party that gives them a home for their political aspirations and a party that welcomes change to the old ways of doing politics.

For both the Conservative Party and the Labour establishment it is tempting to regard the result in 2017 as an anomaly that will soon be corrected. For the Conservative Party they can console themselves with the knowledge that their Faustian pact with the DUP keeps them in power (for now); the Labour establishment will pay lip service to Jeremy Corbyn and claim that the successes were theirs, whilst at the same time biding their time in an attempt to take the Party back by bureaucratic manoeuvres if not another coup. For both they are trying to carry on as if it is business as usual. This is a massive mistake. 


Electoral campaigns are won and lost by many things, but any party that can mobilise hundreds of thousands of people to knock on doors and take the arguments to people who are the victims of Government policies which have ignored them, will have a major advantage. So long as Jeremy Corbyn remains as Labour leader the activists will continue to stand behind him. Whilst he is by no means unassailable he, and the left he leads, have a clear advantage both in terms of controlling the Labour Party and challenging the cosy hegemony of the Conservatives.


3 comments:

  1. From Martin Treacy: More stimulating points as usual with this blog. A fascinating election for those of us who take a strong interest in politics. Certainly I think a 'game changer' in a number of ways - perhaps more importantly in the political engagement of the younger generation. I suspect many of them were deeply shocked by the Brexit result, and realized that it mattered that they voted. I am hopeful this engagement will continue, as the relative lack of votes from young people in previous years meant Governments could cynically ignore their interests in many ways (while attending assiduously to the needs of pensioners - many of whom are quite well off of course).

    Though how this translates to future voting patterns, it really is very hard to tell. Certainly the Conservatives are having serious difficulties attracting younger voters (and not just those under 30 - Labour had high support in the 30-45 age group as well). And of course every year the older generation die off and more young voters are enfranchised. So the Conservatives have a problem - which being yoked to the DUP isn't going to help, in terms of image. (Association with the Homophobic climate-denying, anti-Choice DUP is not likely to enhance the attractiveness of the Conservatives to the younger generation). However, you could argue Labour too has problems - they still need a considerable improvement to gain a majority at the next election, and there are some difficulties they didn't face this time. Firstly, it's unlikely the Tories would run such a dreadful campaign next time round (and I think it's safe to assume it wouldn't be Theresa May in charge). Secondly, few thought Corbyn would be a potential Prime Minister, so he largely got a free pass in terms of policy scrutiny - his position on Brexit in particular (essentially the old left-wing one of being keen to leave the EU) is not likely to endear him to most of the younger voters who saw him as being against the Tory position. John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn have a position that seems remarkably close to Theresa May's, as far as I can tell (Corbyn called for article 50 to be enacted the day after the referendum result, for example, and his recent disciplining of those who voted to remain in the Single Market is also indicative of his position). Labour's official policy is something of a Johnsonian 'having the cake and eating it' at present - and at some point they will have to come off the fence (though will presumably allow the Tories to destroy themselves over this issue first).

    There are some pros for Labour going forward - Jeremy Corbyn is now being taken seriously as a potential Prime Minister, and his public perception has been transformed (he himself also I think actually wants the job, which I wasn't entirely convinced of before, as he was a somewhat reluctant standbearer initially, never in a million years expecting to become Labour leader). The 'Momentum' is certainly with Labour at present (in both senses of the term!). And of course Labour don't need a full majority to be able to become the Government (the psephology of the UK seems to have swung into 'hung Parliament' territory at the moment - I can see that lasting). The SNP and LibDems (and Green) MPs are all natural supporters of a left of centre Government, so in that sense it is easier for Labour to be able to run a minority Government than the Conservatives. I also suspect the Tories planned reduction in number of Commons Seats (from 650 to 600) may not now go ahead (it is very disadvantageous for a number of DUP seats, for a start - and presumably there are many current Tory MPs who would likely lose their seats in the redistribution). This change was of course aimed to make it harder for Labour to gain a majority (our old friend Gerry Mander coming to the party). So if it doesn't go ahead, that's another plus for Labour.

    We live in interesting times!

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    1. Thanks for the comments Martin. Whilst I agree that the situation will be very different next time, I'm not sure I fully agree with your diagnosis. Although, it is the case that Jeremy Corbyn is being taken more seriously (even the BBC seem to have realised that the constant mocking of him - Jeremy Corbyn PM ha ha - backfired, he is also starting from a much stronger position. Whilst I am sceptical of polls because their methodology is suspect (hint for pollsters: just get a representative sample and stop trying to 'correct' for mistakes last time), one thing that they show is trends. Labour and Jeremy Corbyn continue to rise as the Conservatives (and particularly Theresa May) decline. That is not likely to change as we enter the Brexit negotiations. On Brexit, it is not really fair to say that Corbyn and McDonnell's position is the same as May's. For one thing it is not quite clear what May's position is other than 'Brexit means Brexit' which really tells us nothing. At least there was once a time when the Tories could muster a decent slogan! But throughout the election and since Labour, led by Keir Starmer have advocated for a soft Brexit. They realise that it would be electorally disastrous and probably anti-democratic to try to overturn the referendum result so it is all about getting the best possible deal. That means 'access to' not 'membership of' the single market. It means getting as close to as possible tariff free access. It means keeping the European Court of Justice and maintaining workers rights (that awkward red tape that business wants to get rid of) within a framework of human rights. All of this is very different to the logic of Theresa May's position which even members of her own party don't support. The Tories as you say are now being held to ransom by the DUP and it is interesting to watch as they ditch virtually everything they campaigned on, though of course in this context I use the word campaign with irony. Although most Tory MPs would sooner be part of a DUP-led government than lose their seats, the position of the Government is incredibly precarious, they are 7 votes away from a major humiliation. And, the public discourse has shifted so that the pay cap on the public sector is no longer seen as a reasonable approach to the crisis caused by the bankers profligacy. Terrorist attacks, which should have been to the advantage of the Tories, have simply shown how vulnerable we are when you cut police, ambulances, doctors, firefighters et al, and the tragedy of Grenfell Towers has shown in stark relief how divided the country is, at the same time bringing out a fantastic community spirit and some of the most mean-spirited (and I think out of touch) reaction from Tories on the council and in Government and richer residents living nearby. But, as you say, interesting times.

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    2. [From Martin Treacy]
      Thanks for your reply Dave. Actually I agree with you that Jeremy Corby is starting from a MUCH stronger position - if I gave the opposite impression in my response I perhaps didn't make it very clear. Certainly the Conservatives are taking him seriously now, as they are terrified that if there was an election right now he would end up as Prime Minister (and I think they're probably right). Whether this will still be the same if the election is 2, 3 or even more years away is hard to say - simply because things are so volatile these days (certainly never experienced this level of volatility before, and my 'political memory' goes back to the 1970s).

      I think I was a bit unfair in saying that Corbyn's position was 'the same' as Theresa May - I find it hard to be honest to approach Brexit-related issues objectively as 23rd June 2016 was such a wound to the heart. I think you're fair in saying that they are trying to go for a 'softer Brexit' than May's position (she seems obsessed with immigration targets, and prioritizing these even if it means the ruination of the UK - not that actual immigration levels would decrease much even if she 'completely took back control', as we actually NEED a large number of immigrants for a prosperous and functional economy!). I agree Keir Starmer would do his best to negotiate a soft(er) Brexit - though whether the EU will allow that level of flexibility, if Labour insist on ruling out freedom of movement, is very much still up in the air. The 'four freedoms' are a pretty big deal for the EU as a whole, and they will not want to let any 'leaving' country get anything like as good a deal as we would have had if we stayed (because otherwise half the EU would want to leave). However, I accept that Starmer will make a much better fist of negotiating this than May and her minions would (David Davis would be a bit more flexible, I think, but he's like a whippet on a choke chain under May's immigration obsession). I do still remain somewhat wary of Comrades Corbyn and McDonnell's traditional anti-EU stance, and on this topic I am fairly sure their instincts are very different from mine (a passionate believer in the EU since the age of 10, for all of its many faults). However, hopefully they are pragmatic enough to realize that some compromises will definitely be needed to have any chance of a non-disastrous Brexit.

      On other issues - particularly the huge issue you talk about so well, inequality, I'm 100% with Corbyn. And if he became PM he'd have the courage (I was going to say balls, but that's perhaps not very gender correct) to do something about it. When I think of what Tony Blair could have done - a huge majority, a sound economy - for all his genuine achievements (and there certainly were some, particularly compared to what the Conservatives would have done), I still have to see those years as a huge missed opportunity. Corbyn as PM would certainly go for it! I'd love to see that (I just hope the UK isn't a crippled piece of wreckage as a result of a disastrous EU exit before he becomes PM). Though let's hope this Conservative government gets holed beneath the waterline fairly soon. My gut feeling is that they will find it very hard to get much done (it only needs a dozen or so Tory MPs to rebel, and they have to give way). However they're all so terrified of having another election I'm guessing none of them will vote the government down, so it will limp on for 2-3 years perhaps. (Or maybe they'll elect a new leader at this autumn's party conference, and that new leader will decide to take advantage of any honeymoon period to go to the country).

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Many thanks for reading this post and for commenting.